In December 2015, the Central Bank recorded a record inflow of Bank deposits at least since 2012, compared with November, the deposits rose by 8%, or 1726 billion rubles, up to 23,22 trillion. The December inflow of deposits many Bank analysts explained by the desire of the Russians to be safe, not to spend money on gifts and travel, and keep them for a rainy day. However, following the massive influx in January was followed by a maximum from March 2014 outflow of deposits decreased by 1.8%, to 22.8 trillion. This follows from the consolidated statements of banks, which publishes the Central Bank (101-I form).
Ruble deposits for the last month declined for the first time in a year, by 2.8% to 15,94 trillion rubles (last January, the decline amounted to 1.4 per cent). The decline in foreign currency deposits in dollar terms amounted during the first month of 2016 to 2.5%, to $91,23 billion According to experts, the outflow of deposits in January is only the beginning, and although it is largely linked to seasonal factors, in the near future the trend may continue.
— Despite the increased volatility of the exchange rate, [to January 2016] is not observed outflow of deposits, as it was in the beginning of last year, and this is a very good sign — said in mid-January the TV channel “Russia 24” the Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev.
On 11 February it was corrected by his colleague, first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Simanovsky, who confirmed that the outflow of deposits in January is still there, but called it a seasonal phenomenon.
“In January so often. In General in January as people go, they buy, and therefore outflow,” — said Simanovsky. In fact, the outflow was a record. According to the Deputy Director of the center for macroeconomic forecasting and investment strategy of the Bank Natalia Shilova, the January outflow of deposits was a reaction to the massive influx in December.
In December of last year was recorded mass inflow of deposits and the January decline is just correction. At the end of last year, people received an annual bonus, 13th salary, etc., most of them refused expensive gifts and decided to save, like putting money away for a rainy day. However, in January due to long holidays spending grew [to deposits in the statistics also include the balances on the debit cards of the population], and this explains the outflow of deposits, — said Natalia Shilova.
In addition to seasonal factors influenced by the fact budget, says the analyst of PSB Dmitry Monastyrshina.
In December 2015, Federal budget expenditures amounted to 2,579 trillion roubles that almost twice exceeds the average monthly expenditures of the Federal budget last year, in January 2016 spending budget slowed down. Federal budget expenditure in January 2016 amounted to 698 billion rubles. The result of the government spending reduction was eventually reduced account balances of the population, — said the expert.
The January outflow of deposits could be more, but the banks are forced to raise rates to reduce the outflow, especially interest rates on foreign currency deposits in “desperate banks”, – said the head of the analytical Department of the Bank BKF Maxim Osadchy. As an example, he cited the Bank “AVERS” and Lightbank, where the maximum Deposit rate now stands at 9% and 7% per annum, respectively. Unlike ruble deposits, where banks are obliged to focus on the average rate of ten largest banks, interest rates on foreign currency loans banks could make on their own. According to the Central Bank, by 25 January 2016, the average rate of Bank Deposit in roubles for individuals is 7,76%, in dollars — 1,65%. On 15 December last year is 7.23 percent% in rubles and 1.7% in dollars.
In the future, according to interviews with analysts, on the behavior of large depositors might be affected by proposed reforms by the authorities. In late January the Ministry of Finance has proposed to introduce a so-called haircut of deposits — that is, the possibility of forced transfer of large retail deposits (from RUB 100 million) in the capital of problem banks to rehabilitation — such investors can offer two options: to become a shareholder of the Bank or get your hands on an agreement on long-term loan to the Bank. Based on the statements of the Central Bank, the regulator in General are not against this initiative. In addition, in early February the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the authorities think, how to “remove the surplus foreign currency liabilities” at big banks (talking about a non currency, it can be sent to the state debt of the Russian Federation) and foreign currency deposits included in the monetary liabilities.
As said Natalia Shilova, while “we do not see any panic state in the market and some negative reactions to the statements of the speaker or “haircut” deposits.” Agree with this and Dmitry Monastyrshin, but he added that, despite this, in the near future outflow of deposits last and without reforms.
— Further dynamics of deposits will be determined by the pace of budget execution. In the implementation of sequestration, budget cuts deposits of the population may continue to decline. If there will be a strengthening of the ruble, it will lead to a reduction of foreign currency deposits. In addition, since the beginning of this year Rosstat fixes the slowdown. Based on these data, as well as in conditions of low demand for loans, banks are likely to reduce Deposit rates. This factor, according to our expectations, also will cause at least slow down the inflow of funds in banks compared with last year, — said Dmitry Monastyrshin.
About half of foreign currency deposits in Russia in Sberbank and VTB 24 — $47.3 billion foreign Currency deposits of the savings Bank in January of this year amounted to $34,30 billion, lower compared with December of 1.8 per cent or $619.5 million. foreign Currency deposits VTB24 — $12,96 million, lower by 0.4%, or $56 million, compared with December 2015. Among banks by volume of deposits in foreign currency heaviest outflow of foreign currency deposits occurred in FK “Opening” — in January compared with December, a decrease of 7.6%, or $138 million ($1.81 billion).
More than half of rouble deposits also occur in Sberbank and VTB 24. The total volume of ruble deposits of the savings Bank by 1 February amounted to $ 7,76 trillion rubles, which is lower in comparison with December by 4.5%. In January ruble deposits VTB 24 has declined by 2.6% to 1.03 trillion roubles. Of the top ten banks by volume of deposits in rubles, heaviest outflow was at HCF Bank (Home Credit) from 13.6% to 137,9 billion.