After September 30, 2015 the Russian VKS commenced operations against terrorist groups in Syria, that troops of the Arab Republic managed to free from militants 217 settlements. 85% of the population of Syria today is in areas controlled by the government.
It is this fracture in the multi-year war, according to experts, has led the members and stakeholders of the conflict in Syria to agree to a truce. The UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution No. 2268 on the cessation of hostilities at once that, as on February 22, during the consultations between Russia and the USA, agreement was reached on a truce.
The ceasefire in Syria came into force on 27 February. It does not apply to the terrorist group “Islamic state” and “dzhebhat EN-Nusra” were banned in Russia.
Differences have not disappeared
44 military organizations and four the commander of the opposition army, according to the Russian coordination centre, has expressed its intention to accede to the ceasefire.
On 7 March, negotiations between the warring parties to the conflict. And on April 13 in Syria should be held parliamentary elections. The current Constitution, adopted in the Syrian Arab Republic in 2012 and abolish the leading role of the BAATH party, allows you to perform a “roadmap” for reconciliation, bypassing the constitutional reform, which, according to experts, can take critically a lot of time due to the complexity of coordination between all stakeholders.
The Syrian opposition will be represented at the talks by three groups, says a senior researcher at the centre for Arab and Islamic studies of the Institute of Oriental studies Boris Dolgov: “One, formed by Riyadh and the other two on the basis of the meetings in Moscow and Cairo. Also expected to join the Kurdish delegation. Unity between them there are continuing differences”. The expert does not exclude that will have to negotiate with each group separately.
He recalled that the main reason of the Syrian crisis was not an internal social contradictions, as in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, where he started his March to the Arab spring, and the influence of external forces supporting the grouping of jihadists from the Arab-Muslim countries and their Diaspora in Europe. These forces of Debts refers the Gulf monarchies, Turkey and the Western elite aimed at eliminating the regime of Bashar al-Assad by any means.
This goal remains, therefore, external factors continue to impede the peace process in Syria, adding to a regional crisis global. “Infiltration of militants from Turkey in the territory of compact residence of Kurds, clashes with the Kurdish self-defence, the shelling of their positions — all this creates an environment of uncertainty”, noted orientalist.
In addition, large differences regarding so-called peace plan And have a place inside American elites, said a member of the Federation Council Committee on defense and security Alexey Kondratyev. “In the U.S. there are big differences on the eve of elections. And the steps that took Barack Obama, is not the result of a miraculous Epiphany, it’s pragmatic steps. He contradicts the military and military-industrial lobby”.
Synchronously with the American security forces are Turkey and Saudi Arabia: not started to fulfill resolutions of the UN security Council, they were quick to blame the failure of Russia, while Turkey is concentrating troops on the border with Syria, and the Saudis have declared their willingness to participate in a ground operation.
It is time for Europe to open a second front
The success of the operation the Russian VKS is that Russia has no “the terrorists” as the U.S. and its coalition gangs destroyed us have consistently and systematically and not selectively, as some years did the Americans, says member of the Duma Committee on international Affairsof Adalbi Shkhagoshev. For this reason American “partners” can’t fully accept the Russian doctrine in the war on terror the Islamic state and “dzhebhat EN-Nusra.”
“The backbone of the IG are broken, and we’re just going to go to the end, Shkhagoshev. If we had not got involved, Damascus and Baghdad have probably been taken by terrorists, and further their movement was directed toward North Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and from there to us.” The MP compared the importance of the Russian operation in Syria for a number of regions with the liberation of the world from fascism.
However, despite the apparent turnaround in the situation, to win far away. Failing under the onslaught of the militants of the Syrian Arab army abandoned their position in the country and moved to North Africa and to Europe as refugees.
“Once ISIS will be destroyed in Syria, it will be reborn in Somalia, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, expressed concern Shkhagoshev. — Today, the EU has arrived 5 million refugees. I believe that today there is already built a terrorist pyramid. Many of the terrorists got there via migration flows, and today they are waiting for commands for further actions”.
Figuratively speaking, in the EU, crowded with refugees from Arab countries, according to the expert, it’s time to open a second front against the Islamists.