The rise of the machines is
Robots have not demand equality with men
CARSTEN KOALL / AFP
In 1950, British mathematician Alan Turing proposed a test to determine the thinking machine. People should ask questions of two interlocutors, who knows only that one of them is man and the other a computer. The machine passed the test, if the facilitator has determined who is who, wrong or even questioned. Now computers are already able to confuse the judges of the Turing test by posing as children.
Turing began to think about ways of identifying robots long before the first of them. Now robots are everywhere: fly into space, assemble cars, vacuum the apartment, searching the Internet for information on request of the person. But will the day come when the robot considers that he knows better, what he do?
In 1984, on the screens out a movie by James Cameron “Terminator”, the plot of which is laid a concern that man-made artificial intelligence (AI) – the supercomputer Skynet – one will get out of control humanity and destroy it.
Perhaps the reality is not so dramatic, however a year ago dozens of well-known scientists, entrepreneurs and investors have signed an open letter urging them to pay greater attention to security and public utility development in the field of AI. Among them is the founder of companies SpaceX and Tesla Elon Musk and astrophysicist Stephen Hawking.
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The interlocutors of “Vedomosti” agree that AI poses a threat proportional to its use.
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Skynet at the door
In 2015 on the technology of AI accounted for about 5% of global venture investment, which amounted to $47,2 billion, estimated partner of KPMG Ercoa Akylbek. In 2013 the share of such investments accounted for only 2%. In technology AI most often invested IT with romance, believing that he will be able to replace human labour, says Akylbek. Typically, they are older than 30 years, averse to risk and had already invested in an IT company.
The field of AI is still young and, although it hasn’t been a single IPO, it successfully attracts the investment in the venture market, and the companies rank Goldman Sachs, or Shell, says the managing partner of the venture Fund Prostor Capital Alexey Soloviev.
While the expectations from AI higher real income, said managing partner of GVA of the Foundation Vestor.in Pavel Cherkashin. Now the most profitable industry – Finance and advertising, are becoming more popular application in insurance and healthcare, where it is also necessary to analyze big data and finding non-obvious patterns.
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Today computer system would much more efficient to manage corporations, attracting people only to solve non-standard tasks, for which there is no template. Cherkashin predicts that in the financial sector, where hidden knowledge give maximum returns, before the other will be analog Skynet. Such a financial genius would never have made a mistake, brought the yield and spent billions in transactions without bureaucracy. And since he has the same robotic competitors at the person could be in trouble, says Cherkashin. But the threat is not technology itself, but rather what it is used, he said.
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Some experts believe that true AI will be the last invention of mankind, says the head of robotics centre, SKOLKOVO’s albert Yefimov. Although he does not agree with this, but confirms that the AI carries some risks – the disappearance of a number of professions, dividing people and even the loss of natural human skills. According to Efimova, the point of no return for humanity will be passed when a state will give the all-knowing AI the right to violence. The sprouts of this is already there, he believes, and as an example cites administrative fines for speeding and Parking.
One of the problems is responsible for the actions of AI, says Akylbek. Who is to blame if a driverless car will hurt the pedestrian, – the manufacturer or the owner? Robots analyze financial statements, but is that enough for a decision and who will be responsible for the errors?
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To fear is people
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Actually people are afraid of technical progress, the Deputy Director ABBYY (develops systems OCR) Tatyana Danielyan involved in AI. According to her, AI is only a fast processing of a large volume of information on what man can do. Fear due to the fear of losing jobs, I’m sure Danielyan. But there are industries where the application of AI is inevitable: for example, eye surgery are already making robots.
People have and the fear that at some point they will not be able to distinguish between a human and a robot and that they hurt, because his motives are not human and totally incomprehensible, said Danielyan. This is a prejudice people will always be able to distinguish a real human from the robot, she said.
The third fear of mankind Danielyan calls the “rise of the machines”. This fear is associated with lack of information, there is nothing to fear, calms it. Of people distinguished by creative thinking, i.e. the ability to accept the inexplicable and unpredictable solution in different situations. The robot creative thinking will never be, because he somehow accesses the knowledge base for instructions and what to download in this base, the people. Therefore, if the rise of the machines happens, it is because it will be concerned about some of the people, concludes Danielyan.